YouGov Model Shows Treadwell Within Reach of Begich

Most polls in the U.S. Senate race show Dan Sullivan ahead of rival Republican Mead Treadwell in the primary. But the Treadwell campaign is trumpeting a new analysis by the polling firm YouGov. It shows Treadwell would do better against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in November than Sullivan would. In a two-way contest, YouGov estimates Begich would lead Treadwell by 2 points, 47% to 45%. It says the gap between Begich and Sullivan is 12 points,  49% to 37%. The YouGov Battleground Tracker is sponsored by CBS and the New York Times and is based on Internet polling. Nationwide, it shows Republicans have a slight advantage to take the majority of Senate seats.  The researchers caution that Alaska is tricky to poll and there have been few recent surveys. The Alaska data is from 452 Internet respondents. Sullivan campaign spokesman Mike Anderson says YouGov’s work is not based on the more reliable technique of random sampling but allows respondents to “opt-in,” or self-select. Anderson notes The Wall Street Journal reports Begich and Sullivan are evenly matched.

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Liz Ruskin covers Alaska’s congressional delegation, federal agency decisions that shape life in the 49th state, money in politics and elections. She has deep roots in Alaska and this is her third stint in Washington, a city she has grown to love.

She was born in Anchorage and is a West High graduate. She studied political science at the University of Washington and has an M.A. in journalism from the University of Missouri in Columbia. During graduate school, she moved to Washington to intern as a D.C. correspondent. But for her first real journalism job, she moved back to Alaska to work at the Homer News. She was there for three years before taking a job at the Anchorage Daily News. Over the course of nine years in Anchorage, she covered City Hall, courts, state politics, and Native and rural affairs.

Then, in April 2001, she moved back to Washington to work in McClatchy Newspaper’s D.C. bureau as a correspondent for the Anchorage paper. She stayed in the position for five years.

She took a year off for a journalism fellowship at the University of Colorado in Boulder, then freelanced for several years from the U.K. and Japan, in print and radio.

When a vacancy occurred in APRN’s one-person Washington bureau, she jumped at the opportunity. Liz has been APRN’s Washington, D.C. correspondent since October 2013.

lruskin (at) alaskapublic (dot) org  | About Liz