Sullivan Campaign: Poll Says We’re Winning

The campaign of Republican Dan Sullivan is drawing attention to a poll that finds he’s ahead of Democratic Sen. Mark Begich by 5 percentage points. That’s just outside the poll’s margin of error. It’s based on interviews of 500 Alaskans in late June by Basswood, a Republican firm.  The Sullivan press release is aimed a rebutting an analysis sponsored by CBS and the New York Times that rival Republican Mead Treadwell was circulating earlier in the week. That one suggests Treadwell is only two points behind Begich in a two-way race, but Sullivan is lagging 12-points behind. The wide gap in the two surveys could reflect the difference in methodology. The Sullivan campaign says the CBS/New York Times research is not credible because it was not based on random sampling but on an opt-in Internet survey and the results adjusted to match community demographics. Timing may also play a role. The Basswood poll the Sullivan campaign likes was conducted in late June. The survey favorable to Treadwell was conducted over most of July. Meanwhile, a Hellenthal and Associates poll from June shows Sullivan, Treadwell and Begich running neck-and-neck.